Probabilistic forecasting, guidance designed for forecasters on duty using convective-scale ensembles Special focus on precipitation, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms Run-to-run variability (forecast jumpiness/consistency) vs predictability
Publications in peer-reviewed journals: Charpentier-Noyer, M., Payrastre, O., Gaume, E., Nicolle, P., Bouttier, F., Fleury, A., & Marchal, H. (2025). An agent-based modeling of rescue operations for the evaluation of short-range flash flood forecasts. Journal of Hydrology, 657, 133048. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133048 Marchal, H., Bouttier, F., & Nuissier, O. (2025). Is considering (in)consistency between runs so useless for weather forecasting? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25(8), 2613–2628. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025 Bouttier, F., & Marchal, H. (2024). Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24(8), 2793–2816. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024 Bouttier, F., & Marchal, H. (2020). Probabilistic thunderstorm forecasting by blending multiple ensembles. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 72(1), 1696142. https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1696142 Oral presentations: Marchal, H., Bouttier, F., & Nuissier, O. (2024). On the usefulness of considering the run-to-run variability for an ensemble prediction system. EGU 2024. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7753
